Soshyal El Niño guides

Learn: El Niño

Last checked 17 Oct 2026

A Pacific pattern every two to seven years. It can weaken India's monsoon, but not always.

Start here

Painted Pacific panorama with arrows showing rising air over Indonesia, air flowing east high up, sinking dry air in the east and trade winds blowing west, plus a cross-section of a deep warm pool in the west and cold water rising in the east.

Normal conditions: what a balanced Pacific looks like

A red badge reading 87% of normal rain, tagged deficient, beside a bar chart of all-India monsoon rain by month: June 65%, July 101%, August 84% and September 92% of normal, with region cards for Northwest 94%, Central 97%, East and Northeast 74% and South Peninsula 76%.

Monsoon 2026 report card: 87% of normal, month by month

Water-drop graphic reading save 20%, with why-now figures for rain, tankers and groundwater, six painted tip panels on leaks, showers, dry sweeping, tank overflow, rainwater pits and the PAANI app, and a red banner on fines of up to ₹20,000.

The 20% challenge: how a Hyderabad home can cut water use by a fifth

Basics12

Painted Pacific panorama with arrows showing rising air over Indonesia, air flowing east high up, sinking dry air in the east and trade winds blowing west, plus a cross-section of a deep warm pool in the west and cold water rising in the east.

Normal conditions: what a balanced Pacific looks like

Painted globe of the Pacific with arrows showing trade winds weakening and warm water spreading east, more cloud over the east Pacific and less rain over Indonesia, with four illustrated panels on normal years, El Niño, rain shifts and why India cares.

El Niño explained in one picture

Comparison table with painted scenes for La Niña (heavy island rain), neutral (calm sea) and El Niño (warm sunset sea), comparing trade winds, Pacific temperature, Indonesian rain, India's monsoon and duration, with a marker showing El Niño now.

La Niña vs El Niño vs neutral: the three ENSO phases side by side

Painted map of the Pacific with a dashed box on the equator labelled Niño-3.4, three cards giving its latitude, longitude and 3-month averaging, a scale showing the plus and minus 0.5°C thresholds, and the latest reading of +2.1°C.

What the Niño-3.4 box is and why everyone measures it

Painted split scene of the Darwin coast and a Tahiti lagoon, two cards explaining how pressure changes in El Niño and La Niña, and a dial from −35 to +35 with the needle at −20.2, deep in the El Niño zone below −7.

The Southern Oscillation: the air-pressure see-saw behind El Niño

A four-step chain with painted pictures: Pacific trade winds weaken, rising air shifts east, less moisture reaches India, and fields see less rain and more heat. Below, drought years 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 and 2015, and a note that 1997 was normal.

How a Pacific ocean pattern changes India's monsoon winds

Painted underwater scene showing warm sunlit water above a glowing boundary and dark cold water below, with two cross-sections: a sloped thermocline with strong upwelling in a normal year and a flattened one in El Niño. Cards note less upwelling, fewer nutrients and a 150 m drop in 1982–83.

Thermocline and upwelling: the hidden ocean layer that drives El Niño

A four-step vertical track: Not active, Watch, Advisory (highlighted as the status on 8 October 2026) and Final Advisory, beside a painted research ship and buoy and a checklist of the three conditions NOAA needs before calling El Niño conditions.

Watch, Advisory, Final: how NOAA's El Niño alert system works

A ladder of four bars from weak (0.5 to under 1.0°C) to very strong (2.0°C or more), with very strong marked as this year, a painted glowing sea with NOAA's 100% odds of very strong for October–December 2026, and a myth-fact pair about the term super El Niño.

Weak, moderate, strong, ‘super’: what the El Niño strength labels mean

Painted map of the Indian Ocean, warm orange near Africa and cool blue near Indonesia, with two dashed boxes marking the west and east measuring areas, three cards for positive, neutral and negative IOD, and a note that agencies differ on the 2026 phase.

The Indian Ocean Dipole: India's other ocean see-saw

Myth and fact cards, a painted sunset sea with heat shimmering upward, and two simple tanks showing heat held in the deep ocean during La Niña and moved into the air during El Niño, with a note that August 2026 was the hottest August on record.

Why El Niño releases ocean heat rather than creating new heat

Four painted panels of a satellite over the Pacific, a moored ocean buoy, an Argo float underwater and a research ship, then a four-step flow from observing to publishing forecasts, with cards on 1–6 month lead time and the spring predictability barrier.

How forecasters predict El Niño months ahead: models, buoys and satellites

2026 status8

A painted ocean that shifts from cool blue to warm orange, above a timeline with five dots: La Niña from September 2025, neutral from March 2026, El Niño from May 2026, strong by August 2026 at about plus 2.08 degrees, and strong conditions in October 2026.

El Niño 2026 timeline: from La Niña to neutral to El Niño

Three agency cards with painted pictures showing NOAA +2.1°C, BoM +2.81°C and IMD strong, a WMO bar chart rising to a forecast +3.7°C, and NOAA's 54%, 83% and 70% odds of a record El Niño.

How strong is El Niño right now? NOAA, BoM and IMD compared

Bar chart of NOAA's chance of a record El Niño: 54% for September to November, 83% for October to December and 70% for November to January, beside a painted storm cloud over a glowing ocean, with cards on BoM's weekly record and WMO's forecast.

Will 2026–27 become the strongest El Niño on record? What the probabilities say

Stacked bars of NOAA's El Niño, neutral and La Niña probabilities for nine three-month seasons from September–November 2026 to May–July 2027: El Niño stays at 100% to January–March, then falls to 45% by April–June and 17% by May–July, when neutral reaches 70% and La Niña 13%.

When will El Niño peak and end? Month-by-month odds to mid-2027

A schematic bar for today's Niño-3.4 temperature measured against two lines, a fixed long-term average (ONI) and the current average of all tropical oceans (RONI), above three cards: NOAA September +2.1°C, BoM weekly +2.81°C and WMO October–December forecast +3.7°C.

Why El Niño numbers differ between agencies: baselines explained simply

A painted top-down Indian Ocean with west and east boxes marked, above three agency cards: IMD neutral on 1 October, BoM positive likely with an index of +0.88 on 13 October, and WMO weak positive peaking in October, plus a scale showing the BoM reading above the +0.4 threshold.

The IOD question: is the Indian Ocean neutral or positive, and why agencies disagree

A painted misty road beside a banyan tree, clear in front and hazy in the distance, above two columns: five things we know, such as a strong El Niño and an 87% monsoon, and five things not known yet, such as the winter outlook, monsoon 2027 and the Indian Ocean Dipole phase.

El Niño and India: what we know and what we don't (October 2026)

Two stacked bars: equal climatological odds of 33% below normal, 34% normal and 33% above normal, and IMD's May 2026 South Peninsula forecast tilted to 45% below normal, 34% normal and 21% above normal, beside four steps for reading the map and a painted farmer watching clouds.

How to read an IMD seasonal outlook map: terciles in plain words

India10

A red badge reading 87% of normal rain, tagged deficient, beside a bar chart of all-India monsoon rain by month: June 65%, July 101%, August 84% and September 92% of normal, with region cards for Northwest 94%, Central 97%, East and Northeast 74% and South Peninsula 76%.

Monsoon 2026 report card: 87% of normal, month by month

A painted half-empty south Indian reservoir with cracked banks and a hilltop temple, labelled 76% of normal rain, above cards showing 542 mm received against 716 mm normal and monthly bars of 80%, 75%, 73% and 73% of normal from June to September.

South India's 4th-driest monsoon since 1901: what the numbers say

Three tiles: October all-India rain below normal at under 85% of about 75 mm, temperatures above normal, and a drier October to December for the Indian subcontinent per WMO, above a painted sun-baked road and a get-ready checklist.

October to December 2026 outlook: hotter and drier for most of India

Painted Tamil Nadu beach with fishing boats under rain clouds and a label saying 48% of Tamil Nadu's yearly rain falls in October to December, above IMD's forecast of normal rain for the region as a whole, with south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu normal to above and most other areas below normal.

Northeast monsoon 2026: who may get normal rain and who may not

Painted green wheat field with mustard flowers on a mild winter morning, labelled rabi crops, above a note that IMD has not yet issued a winter outlook, a myth-versus-concern pair, and three cards on soil moisture, February–March heat and possible Himalayan snow drought.

Winter 2026–27: why a warmer winter is a risk, not a relief

Painted Himalayan peaks with thin, patchy snow above a three-step flow from snow to melt to rivers, and a bar chart of ICIMOD's 2026 snow persistence: Irrawaddy +21.8%, Ganges +16.3%, all Hindu Kush Himalaya −27.8%, Salween −41.8%, Tibetan Plateau −47.4% and Mekong −59.5%.

Snow drought: how Himalayan snow affects summer river water

A painted sun-baked north-west Indian town above a bar chart of India's five warmest years since 1901 per IMD: 2024 at +0.65°C, 2016 at +0.54°C, 2009 at +0.40°C, 2010 at +0.39°C and 2017 at +0.38°C, with 2024, 2016 and 2010 highlighted as years after an El Niño, plus cards on Phalodi's 51.0°C record and Ahmedabad's 2010 heatwave.

Summer 2027 heat risk: the ‘decay year’ pattern explained

A painted Indian city at dusk with lit windows, air conditioners, solar panels and power towers, captioned with a Ministry of Power quote, above three figures: 270.8 GW all-time peak demand in May 2026, about 12% higher peak demand in April to June, and a record 103.7 GW of solar and wind in July 2026.

Electricity demand in a hot El Niño year: what the numbers show

Bar chart of retail inflation: 4.5% in July and 4.8% in August 2026 actual, and RBI projections of 4.9%, 6.0% and 5.7% for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2026–27, beside a painted vegetable market with onions and tomatoes.

Food prices and El Niño: what the RBI says is moving and why

A painted Kerala coast with fishing boats over warm turquoise water and coral, above stacked bars from INCOIS's 2 October 2026 bulletin: Arabian Sea 20% watch, 34% alert and 11% warning; Bay of Bengal 28% watch, 11% alert and 1% warning, with a legend of the three heat levels.

Coastal seas in an El Niño year: marine heatwaves and fishing communities

States10

Painted dry Deccan landscape with Telangana's 615.5 mm, −17% total, bar chart of the eight driest districts led by Jogulamba Gadwal at −41%, month-by-month changes, and a Hyderabad card with tanker and groundwater figures.

Telangana's monsoon 2026: normal on paper, 18 districts short

Ranked bar chart of Telangana's 18 rain-deficient districts in June to September 2026, from Jogulamba Gadwal at 41% below normal to Nirmal at 20% below, with Hyderabad at 27% below, above a painted dry Deccan landscape.

Telangana's driest districts in monsoon 2026

A painted dry Rayalaseema landscape with rocky hills and thin groundnut plants, below an IMD outlook card and a bar chart of rain from 1 to 17 October 2026: Coastal Andhra 17.4 mm against a normal 103.5 mm, and Rayalaseema 32.6 mm against 76.8 mm.

Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema: the northeast monsoon outlook explained

A teal badge reading 48% of Tamil Nadu's yearly rain falls in October to December, above paired bars of dam storage on 17 October 2026 versus a year earlier: Mettur 24% versus 97%, Bhavanisagar 21% versus 84%, Vaigai 20% versus 66% and Papanasam 12% versus 41% of capacity, with a painted temple tank under rain clouds.

Tamil Nadu: why Oct–Dec rain matters for half its year

A red badge reading 28% less rain than normal, June to September, above a bar chart of Kerala districts from Wayanad 53% short and Idukki 47% short to Kannur and Pathanamthitta 12% short, an IMD outlook card, IMD's green, yellow, orange and red alert colours, and a painted Kerala backwater in the rain.

Kerala: a dry monsoon, and normal-to-above northeast rain for the south

Two bars comparing usable water in Karnataka's 23 big reservoirs, 424 TMC on 17 October 2025 and 291 TMC on 17 October 2026, beside paired bars for Cauvery basin dams: Krishna Raja Sagar 47% full versus 100% a year ago, Kabini 54% versus 98%, Harangi 57% versus 95% and Hemavathy 42% versus 88%, above a painted stone dam with low water.

Karnataka: reservoirs and the south interior outlook

A painted water train of tanker wagons at a dry rural station with three women seen from behind carrying pots, above a timeline from 2014 to 2016 of Marathwada's drought and the Latur water trains, and a card on what researchers found.

Maharashtra and Marathwada: lessons from the 2015 drought

A painted Thar desert with heat shimmer and a sandstone fort, above bars for three record temperatures: Phalodi 51.0°C on 19 May 2016 after the 2015–16 El Niño, Alwar 50.6°C in 1956, and Churu 50.5°C on 28 May 2024 after the 2023–24 El Niño.

Rajasthan and the northwest: heat records in past decay years

A red badge reading 74% of normal rain, lowest since 1901, beside a bar chart of monthly rain in IMD's East and Northeast region in 2026: June 65%, July 71%, August 83% and September 75% of normal, with a dashed line for normal, and bars for October shortfalls in Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, and the Naga-Mani-Mizo-Tripura subdivision.

East and Northeast India: the driest monsoon since 1901

A painted wheat field under a harsh spring sun, above a card showing 33.1°C, India's average daily high in March 2022, the hottest March in 122 years, an ICAR-CRIDA card on yield losses of up to 15 to 25 percent, and bars of 2022 Punjab yields by practice: irrigation during heat 98%, happy seeder 97%, heat-tolerant varieties 97%, timely sowing 95% and late sowing 93% of a normal year.

Indo-Gangetic plains: the wheat belt and late-winter heat

Farmers10

A painted farmer seen from behind ploughing furrows with two bullocks beside a small farm pond, above a seven-point checklist for rain-fed rabi farming: check soil moisture, make compartment bunds and furrows, intercultivate, save water for life-saving irrigation, choose variety and date with the KVK, insure under PMFBY, and read the twice-weekly agromet advisory.

Rabi 2026–27 checklist for rain-fed farmers

A painted farmer seen from behind checking a phone at the edge of a field, above a bar splitting 651 farming districts into 109 very high, 201 highly vulnerable and 341 other districts, four steps for using the ICAR-CRIDA district contingency plan, and cards on stress-tolerant varieties.

Your district already has a weather contingency plan

A painted field split between green pulse plants and dry paddy stubble on cracked soil, above a bar chart from news reports of Telangana reservoir storage, 462 tmc in a typical year versus 200 tmc now, cards on the state's appeal to switch from paddy to pulses and the Krishna basin shortfall, and a four-point checklist for choosing crops.

Choosing lower-water crops and varieties in a dry year

Painted young crop rows with the soil between them covered by straw mulch in early sun, above four numbered steps from IMD's Karnataka agromet advisory: mulch the soil, strengthen field bunds, ring-mulch orchard trees away from the trunk, and save water for life-saving irrigation at critical stages.

Soil moisture: mulching and field bunds after a dry monsoon

A painted close-up of drip irrigation pipes watering young plants in red soil with a sprinkler behind, above two bars showing central assistance under Per Drop More Crop: 55% of cost for small and marginal farmers and 45% for other farmers, with cards on how micro-irrigation helps, the 5-hectare limit, and drip versus sprinkler.

Drip and sprinkler basics, and where to find subsidy

A painted lined farm pond full of rainwater among green crops with a small pump beside it, above a card explaining that 1 mm of rain on 1 square metre is 1 litre, a card on farm ponds as a permitted MGNREGA work, and three steps to plan a pond before the next rains.

Farm ponds and water harvesting before the next rains

Painted cows and buffaloes resting under a large tree beside a thatched shed with wet gunny sacks and a stone water trough, above five numbered steps on shade, water, feed timing, shed cooling and bathing, plus cards on warning signs and animals most at risk.

Livestock care in heat: shade, water and feed timing

A painted wheat field flattened by hail with a farmer seen from behind, above bars of the most a farmer pays under PMFBY: 2% for kharif food and oilseed crops, 1.5% for rabi and 5% for commercial and horticultural crops, cards on what is covered, who can enrol and the helpline 14447.

Crop insurance (PMFBY): when and how to enrol

A painted silhouette of a farmer from behind holding up a phone in a green field at sunrise, above a weekly calendar with Tuesday and Friday highlighted as agromet advisory days, four steps for using the Meghdoot app, and cards on who writes the advice and other ways to get it.

Using IMD agromet advisories and the Meghdoot app

A painted village farmyard with a large haystack, bundles of green fodder and a covered silage pit with cattle behind, above a four-step fodder plan from now to summer and cards explaining silage and hay.

Fodder planning for a dry winter

Water10

Water-drop graphic reading save 20%, with why-now figures for rain, tankers and groundwater, six painted tip panels on leaks, showers, dry sweeping, tank overflow, rainwater pits and the PAANI app, and a red banner on fines of up to ₹20,000.

The 20% challenge: how a Hyderabad home can cut water use by a fifth

A painted bathroom with a steel bucket and mug under a tap, above a horizontal bar chart breaking down 135 litres per person per day: bathing 55, toilet flushing 30, washing clothes 20, utensils 10, house cleaning 10, drinking 5 and cooking 5 litres, with cards on bathing being the biggest share and small habits that save water.

Litres per task: where a city household's water goes

A painted close-up of a dripping tap with a wrench and a new washer nearby, above a card stating that a tap dripping once a second can waste more than 11,000 litres a year according to the US EPA, cards on worn washers and a two-hour meter test for hidden leaks, and a short leak checklist.

Fix one leak: how much water a dripping tap wastes

A painted kitchen corner with a wall-mounted water purifier whose drain tube runs into a blue bucket, a mop and a second bucket beside potted balcony plants, above a checklist of CPCB-listed uses for RO reject water, a warning never to drink or cook with it, and a card on the 40% minimum recovery rule.

Reusing RO reject water safely at home

A painted apartment rooftop in the rain with a downpipe running into a filter drum and down to a grated recharge pit, above a bar chart of HMWSSB estimates showing a 100 square metre roof can harvest about 55 cubic metres a year and a 500 square metre roof about 275, cards on what that water means, and the four parts of a system: mesh, first flush, filter, and tank or pit.

Rooftop rainwater harvesting for houses and apartments

A painted recharge pit beside a house, above a cross-section diagram of a recharge pit 1 to 2 metres wide and 2 to 3 metres deep, filled with boulders at the bottom, gravel in the middle and coarse sand on top, with cards on pit sizes for different roofs, a mesh and desilting chamber, and cleaning the top sand layer.

Recharge pits: send roof rainwater back underground

Residents seen from behind looking at a notice board in an apartment courtyard, above a five-row audit sheet with blank result boxes for daily use, use per person, a two-hour leak test, overhead tank overflow and rainwater recharge, and cards with example per-person maths and HMWSSB's fines for wastage.

A one-week water audit for gated communities and RWAs

A painted water tanker on a dry city street, above four steps from WHO for cleaning a storage tank (empty, scrub, rinse, disinfect), a card showing Chennai Metrowater's dose of 10 grams of bleaching powder per 1,000 litres with a 30-minute wait, and cards on boiling drinking water and keeping tanks covered.

Tanker water safety: storage, cleaning and disinfecting

A painted borewell hand pump on dry ground, above three stat cards from news reports of state groundwater data: levels 6.85 metres lower than September 2025, rain 26% below normal and depths ranging from 1.35 metres at Miyapur to 47 metres at Kukatpally, and a column chart of area share by depth with most of the city at 10 to 15 metres.

Why groundwater dropped in Hyderabad this year

A painted cool living room with a ceiling fan, a wall-mounted air conditioner and light curtains drawn against the sun, above a row of AC temperature settings from 18 to 26 degrees with 24 highlighted as the factory default, and cards on saving about 6% per degree, the myth that 18 degrees cools faster, closing curtains by day and Telangana's high power demand.

Saving electricity in the heat: why 24°C is the smart AC setting

History6

Myths3

A painted Kerala backwater under monsoon rain clouds above a bar chart of India's 741 districts in monsoon 2026 by rain category: 16 large excess, 90 excess, 312 normal, 282 deficient and 34 large deficient. Cards on subdivisions and the October–December forecast.

Myth: El Niño means drought everywhere in India

A painted rough sea under dark storm clouds above a bar chart of India's June–September rain in five El Niño years: 1997 strong +0.2%, 1994 weak +13.9%, 2015 moderate −12.7%, 2002 weak −20.9% and 1972 moderate −22.3%. Cards quote WMO that strength does not translate directly into impacts, and explain the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Myth: a stronger El Niño always means a worse monsoon

A painted tropical island under heavy rain clouds above a bar chart of NOAA's La Niña chances: 1% for April–June 2027 and 13% for May–July 2027, with neutral most likely. Cards say El Niño is often but not always followed by La Niña, and WMO expects El Niño to peak around December and last through February 2027.

Myth: La Niña will come right after El Niño and fix things

How to help3

A painted family seen from behind on a sofa looking at a phone with a blank screen, above four cards for the loop learn, share, help and reuse, a list of the five official Soshyal El Niño rooms with their links, and cards on joining by email code and the official Soshyal team hosts.

How the Soshyal El Niño rooms work: learn, share, help, reuse

A painted lane where neighbours seen from behind pass water pots to one another, above two checklists for asking and offering help, a safety checklist, and an emergency note with the official numbers 108, 102 and Tele-MANAS 14416.

How to ask for or offer help in a Soshyal room, safely

Painted colony volunteers seen from behind gathered around a water meter in a courtyard, above a six-step playbook: share the room, walk for leaks, agree the basics, watch the tanks, cover stored water and report back. Cards show the state's ask to cut water use by at least 20% and a note to reuse the room next time.

Volunteer playbook: run a colony water-saving drive in Hyderabad

Pick your room

El Niño 2026: Learn & Help
What El Niño means for India, and a place to ask or offer help.
Always openJoin
Hyderabad Water Watch
Water-saving tips, leak reports and neighbour help in Hyderabad.
Always openJoin
Heat Safety India
Heat warnings, cool spots and looking out for neighbours.
Always openJoin
Farmers & El Niño
Farmers sharing rain updates, rabi tips and help.
Always openJoin
Kids Learn: El Niño
Parents and teachers explaining El Niño to kids. Room is for adults 18+.
Always openJoin

Chat rooms in Hyderabad