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El Niño 2026 timeline: from La Niña to neutral to El Niño
In short. A year ago the tropical Pacific was in the opposite mood. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), La Niña, the cool phase of the cycle, ran from September 2025 to February 2026.
A year ago the tropical Pacific was in the opposite mood. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), La Niña, the cool phase of the cycle, ran from September 2025 to February 2026.
March 2026: neutral. The Pacific returned to near its long-term average. Neutral does not mean nothing is happening; it is simply the middle state between the two extremes.
May 2026: El Niño arrives. IMD says the Niño-3.4 sea temperature index crossed the El Niño threshold in May. Union Minister Jitendra Singh told the Lok Sabha the same: El Niño developed in May 2026.
June 2026: monsoon onset. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, three days after the usual date, just as El Niño was taking hold.
August 2026: strong. IMD's September bulletin puts the Niño-3.4 index at about +2.08°C for August, well into the strong range.
October 2026: still strengthening. IMD's northeast monsoon outlook on 1 October said strong El Niño conditions are prevailing and models show them strengthening through the end of the year, likely lasting into early 2027.
La Niña ended in February and El Niño had arrived by May, only about three months later. That speed is one reason forecasters update their outlooks every month, and why we will keep this page's dates visible.
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Last checked 17 Oct 2026
Last checked: 17 October 2026. Forecasts can change; check the latest IMD, NOAA, WMO and BoM updates.
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