Northeast monsoon 2026: who may get normal rain and who may not

For much of south India, October to December is the second rainy season. The northeast monsoon brings rain to the southern tip of India as the winds turn around after the southwest monsoon.

Why it matters. IMD says the five subdivisions of south peninsular India, Tamil Nadu with Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh with Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala with Mahe, and south interior Karnataka, get about 30% of their annual rain in this season. For Tamil Nadu it is about 48%.

The 2026 outlook (IMD, 1 October). Rainfall over the region as a whole is most likely to be normal, meaning 88–112% of the long-period average of about 334 mm.

But it is uneven. IMD's map shows normal to above-normal rain likely over southern Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu. Most areas of the rest of the region are likely to get below-normal rain. In October itself, many areas of south Tamil Nadu, some of north Tamil Nadu and the hilly areas of Kerala may see normal or better rain.

Warm, too. Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of the region.

After a weak southwest monsoon. The South Peninsula got only 76% of its normal rain from June to September. If your area falls in the below-normal zone, conserve water now and follow your state and city water advisories. Heavy-rain days can still happen, so keep watching IMD's daily warnings.

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