2002: the El Niño year the monsoon missed July

In 2002 India's monsoon failed during what IMD rates a weak El Niño. June–September rain was 20.9% below normal (IMD El Niño and monsoon table).

The missing July. A paper in IMD's journal MAUSAM records that all-India rain in July 2002 was 51.5% below normal, the worst July in recorded history.

Three unusual things. MAUSAM notes that, for the first time in 133 years, no monsoon depression or cyclonic storm formed all season. The monsoon covered the whole country only on 15 August, about a month late and the longest delay on record. And the drought came after 14 good monsoons in a row.

The farm impact. The National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC, ISRO) records that the 2002 drought cut India's sown area from 124 to 112 million hectares, and food grain output from 212 to 174 million tonnes.

How wide? IMD Pune's drought report says 29% of the country's area was in drought in 2002.

The lesson. Even a weak El Niño can come with a severe drought, and a strong one can pass with normal rain, as in 1997. Other factors, like the Indian Ocean and the timing of rain, matter too.

Join the El Niño help room on soshyal.com to ask questions and share what you see in your area.