Will 2026–27 become the strongest El Niño on record? What the probabilities say

Headlines are already calling this a possible record El Niño. Here is what the agencies actually say, as of mid-October 2026.

NOAA gives it better-than-even odds, not certainty. In its 8 October discussion, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a record event, meaning a three-month index of +2.5°C or more, stronger than anything since 1950, at 54% for September–November, 83% for October–December and 70% for November–January.

A weekly record has already fallen in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology's weekly relative Niño-3.4 reading reached +2.81°C in the week ending 11 October, the highest in its weekly series, which starts in 2008. But the Bureau notes that monthly values are still below past records.

WMO's forecast is very high too. WMO's 8 October update puts the October–December Niño-3.4 forecast near +3.7°C on its own baseline, above the +2.6°C of late 2015. Different agencies use different baselines, so do not compare these numbers directly with NOAA's.

Bigger does not automatically mean worse. WMO stresses that "the strength of an El Niño event does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in any region." What matters for India is also the Indian Ocean, the timing and local weather.

So, the honest answer is: a record is likely but not confirmed. NOAA's next update is on 12 November 2026.

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