Snow drought: how Himalayan snow affects summer river water

"Snow drought" means a winter with much less snow than normal in the mountains. It does not look dramatic, but it shows up months later as lower river flows.

How it works. Snow builds up in the Himalaya during winter, melts through spring and summer, and feeds rivers that supply farms, cities and hydropower. Less snow means less meltwater when it is most needed.

Last winter was already a record low. ICIMOD's Hindu Kush Himalaya Snow Update, released on 24 April 2026, found snow persistence 27.8% below the long-term average for November 2025 to March 2026. It was the fourth below-normal year in a row and a new record low. Ten of the 12 major river basins were below normal, including the Mekong (−59.5%), the Tibetan Plateau (−47.4%) and the Salween (−41.8%). The Ganges (+16.3%) and Irrawaddy (+21.8%) were the exceptions.

Why it matters for India. ICIMOD warned that farmers in the Indus basin could face irrigation shortfalls early in the growing season, and that Brahmaputra hydropower could be below normal in early summer. It also said repeated low-snow years stop groundwater and soil moisture from refilling.

What about this winter? There is no official snow outlook yet. Experts quoted by the Times of India (14 October) say a Himalayan snow drought is possible during this El Niño winter. Treat that as a risk to watch, not a forecast.

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