Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema: the northeast monsoon outlook explained

For Andhra Pradesh, the northeast monsoon from October to December is the second rainy season. Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema both count on it to top up tanks, reservoirs and groundwater. Here is what IMD has said, in plain words.

The outlook (forecast, 1 October 2026). IMD's Northeast Monsoon Outlook says rain over south peninsular India as a whole is most likely to be normal, meaning 88–112% of the long-period average. But the spread is uneven. Southern Tamil Nadu and southern Kerala lean towards normal to above-normal rain, while most of the remaining region, which takes in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, leans below normal. IMD also expects warmer-than-normal days and nights across most of the region.

The first half of October. IMD's subdivision figures for 1–17 October show Coastal Andhra Pradesh got 17.4 mm against a normal of 103.5 mm (83% short) and Rayalaseema 32.6 mm against 76.8 mm (57% short).

Reservoirs. Central Water Commission data, as reported by BusinessLine on 15 October, flagged Somasila and Kandaleru among the low reservoirs in the south.

What IMD advises. Authorities should assess water availability, plan irrigation carefully, promote water conservation and use IMD's impact-based forecasts.

Keep perspective. An outlook is about probabilities, not a promise. A cyclone or a couple of good spells can still bring heavy rain. Follow IMD Amaravati's district forecasts and your agriculture department's advisories.

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