Indo-Gangetic plains: the wheat belt and late-winter heat

Wheat across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and the rest of the Indo-Gangetic plains fills its grain around March. A sudden heat spell at that stage can cut the harvest, and 2022 showed how much.

What happened in 2022 (fact). IMD reported that India's average maximum temperature in March 2022 was 33.10°C, the highest for March in 122 years of records. ICAR's dryland research institute, CRIDA, found the heat came while wheat grain was filling, causing yellowing and shrivelled grain and forcing early ripening. Yields fell by up to 15–25% in affected areas. On 13 May 2022 the Directorate General of Foreign Trade moved wheat exports to "prohibited".

What helped. In CRIDA's report, Punjab fields that used certain practices held up better. Measured against a normal year's yield, fields given irrigation during the heat reached about 98%; fields sown with a happy seeder and heat-tolerant varieties reached about 97%; timely sowing in the first two weeks of November about 95%; and late sowing after 15 November about 93%.

Keep it honest. The 2021–22 winter was a La Niña winter, not El Niño, so 2022 shows what late heat does rather than what El Niño does. Some experts expect a warmer winter in 2026–27 because of El Niño, but IMD has not issued a winter outlook yet.

What farmers can do. Plan sowing dates and varieties with your Krishi Vigyan Kendra or state agriculture university, keep an eye on IMD agromet advisories, and keep irrigation water in reserve for February and March.

Join the El Niño help room on soshyal.com to ask questions and share what you see in your area.