Kerala: a dry monsoon, and normal-to-above northeast rain for the south

Kerala is usually one of India's wettest states, but the 2026 southwest monsoon left it well short.

The monsoon (fact). IMD's Thiruvananthapuram centre reports Keralam got 1,446.5 mm from June to September, against a normal of 2,018.6 mm: 28% short, which IMD classes as deficient. Wayanad (53% short) and Idukki (47%) were hit hardest, followed by Kollam (38%). Kannur and Pathanamthitta, both 12% short, stayed in the normal range.

The outlook (forecast, 1 October 2026). IMD's Northeast Monsoon Outlook says southern Kerala is likely to get normal to above-normal rain from October to December, and hilly areas of Kerala lean normal to above in October. Most other parts of south India lean below normal.

So far. From 1 to 17 October, Kerala got 125.3 mm against a normal 176 mm, still 29% short.

What it means. Rain in the south will help top up wells, rivers and reservoirs, but it is unlikely to make up the whole monsoon gap. Northern districts may stay drier.

Heavy spells still happen. Even in a dry year, a few days of intense rain can bring flooding or landslides in the hills. IMD's colour-coded alerts tell you what to do: green means no action, yellow means be updated, orange means be prepared and red means take action. Follow IMD and the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority for local alerts.

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