La Niña vs El Niño vs neutral: the three ENSO phases side by side

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific with three phases. IMD says events typically develop every 2 to 7 years.

La Niña (cool phase). Trade winds are stronger than usual and the central and eastern Pacific is cooler than average. More rain falls over Indonesia. For India, IMD says La Niña generally strengthens the summer monsoon, making above-normal rain more likely, though every event is different. La Niña can last two or three years.

Neutral. Winds, ocean temperatures and rain across the tropical Pacific stay near their long-term averages (NOAA Climate.gov), so ENSO gives no push either way. Other drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, still shape India's rain.

El Niño (warm phase). Trade winds are weaker than usual, the central and eastern Pacific is warmer than average and rain over Indonesia is below average. IMD says El Niño generally suppresses the Indian summer monsoon. El Niño events usually last 9 to 18 months.

Where are we now? NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in place (8 October 2026). Many people expect La Niña to follow quickly, but NOAA's October outlook gives La Niña just 13% for May–July 2027. Neutral is most likely by then.

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