Watch, Advisory, Final: how NOAA's El Niño alert system works

News reports often say NOAA has issued an "El Niño Advisory". Here is what the labels in NOAA's ENSO Alert System mean, using the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) own definitions.

Not active. Neither El Niño nor La Niña is observed or expected in the coming six months.

Watch. Conditions are favourable for El Niño (or La Niña) to develop within the next six months. Think of it as "get ready".

Advisory. El Niño (or La Niña) conditions are observed now and expected to continue. This is the current status: CPC's 8 October 2026 discussion is headed "ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory".

Final Advisory. Issued once the conditions have ended.

What counts as "El Niño conditions"? CPC needs three things: a one-month sea temperature anomaly of +0.5°C or more in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific; an expectation that the three-month index will stay above that threshold; and an atmospheric response typical of El Niño, such as weaker trade winds or rain shifting east.

When to look for updates. CPC publishes its ENSO discussion and probabilities on the second Thursday of each month. A team of about ten forecasters sets the official outlook using many models and observations. The next update is scheduled for 12 November 2026.

Join the El Niño help room on soshyal.com to ask questions and share what you see in your area.