Myth: a stronger El Niño always means a worse monsoon

Myth: a stronger El Niño always means a worse monsoon for India.

Fact: El Niño's strength is only one part of the story. The World Meteorological Organization says "the strength of an El Niño event does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in any region" (WMO, 3 Sep 2026).

India's record. IMD's El Niño and monsoon table shows how mixed the results are:

• 1997, a strong El Niño: rain was normal, at +0.2%.
• 1994, a weak El Niño: rain was 13.9% above normal.
• 2002, a weak El Niño: rain was 20.9% below normal, a severe drought.
• 1972, a moderate El Niño: rain was 22.3% below normal.

Why? IMD explains that impacts depend on the event's pattern, timing and duration, and on other drivers. The Indian Ocean Dipole is one: a positive IOD can partly offset El Niño's drying effect. Similar-strength events can therefore play out very differently.

What it means for 2026. IMD says strong El Niño conditions are prevailing. That raises the risk of dry, hot conditions, but it doesn't fix the outcome for any one place. Follow IMD's district forecasts and local advisories rather than the label "strong" alone.

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