El Niño and India: what we know and what we don't (October 2026)

There is a lot of noise about El Niño. Here is an honest sorting of what is established and what is still open, as of 17 October 2026.

What we know

• El Niño is strong right now. IMD says strong El Niño conditions are prevailing, and NOAA has an El Niño Advisory in place.
• The 2026 southwest monsoon gave India 87% of its long-period average rain (IMD, 30 September), in the deficient category.
• El Niño will very likely last into early 2027. NOAA gives it a 100% chance through January–March.
• WMO says drier-than-normal conditions are forecast over the Indian subcontinent for October–December.
• IMD expects above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most of the country in October, and over most of south India through December.

What we don't know yet

• The winter outlook. IMD has not issued a December–February forecast yet; current talk of a warm winter is expert opinion.
• Monsoon 2027. There is no official forecast; IMD's first one normally comes in mid-April.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole phase. IMD says neutral, BoM and WMO lean positive.
• Whether this becomes a record El Niño. NOAA puts the odds at 54–83% depending on the season.
• The impact on your town. WMO stresses that strength does not translate directly into local impact.

Plan for the known risks now, and check back for the rest.

Join the El Niño help room on soshyal.com to ask questions and share what you see in your area.