When will El Niño peak and end? Month-by-month odds to mid-2027

El Niño is not a single storm; it is a pattern that lasts months. So when does this one peak, and when will it fade?

The odds, season by season. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes probabilities for overlapping three-month seasons. In October 2026 it gave El Niño a 100% chance for every season from September–November 2026 to January–March 2027. Then the odds fall: 98% for February–April, 85% for March–May, 45% for April–June and 17% for May–July 2027.

Neutral takes over by mid-2027. By April–June 2027, neutral becomes slightly more likely (54%) than El Niño. By May–July it rises to 70%.

La Niña is unlikely soon. NOAA gives La Niña only 1% for April–June 2027 and 13% for May–July 2027. Do not expect a quick swing to the cool phase to "fix" things.

The peak. WMO says the event is likely to peak around December. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says its models peak the warmth in November or December and keep it going into March–May 2027.

What this means for us in India. The southwest monsoon is over, but El Niño is not. Warmth is expected to linger into early 2027, so planning for water, heat and crops should continue through winter and into summer. We will update this page after NOAA's next release on 12 November 2026.

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