October to December 2026 outlook: hotter and drier for most of India

The southwest monsoon has ended, but the forecasts for the next three months point the same way: warmer and drier than usual for most of India.

October rain. IMD expects all-India rainfall in October 2026 to be below normal, under 85% of the long-period average of about 75.4 mm, as reported by The Hindu on 30 September.

Temperatures. IMD expects above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most of the country in October. Its 1 October outlook for south India also expects above-normal day and night temperatures through December.

The regional view. WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update of 8 October says drier-than-normal conditions are forecast over the Indian subcontinent for October–December.

Not everywhere. IMD expects normal to above-normal rain over south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu during the northeast monsoon, even as most other areas of the south get below normal.

What IMD advises. In its northeast monsoon outlook, IMD warns of soil-moisture stress, higher irrigation needs and lower recharge of reservoirs and groundwater. It advises authorities and users to assess water availability, optimise irrigation, promote water conservation and act on IMD's impact-based forecasts and advisories.

What this means for you. Save water, plan any irrigation carefully, prepare for warm days and nights, and check IMD's extended-range forecast, which is updated every Thursday.

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