Myth: El Niño means drought everywhere in India

Myth: El Niño means drought everywhere in India.

Fact: El Niño raises the risk of a weak monsoon, but rain still varies widely across the country.

The 2026 monsoon. India's June–September rain was 87% of the long-period average, a deficient season (IMD, 30 Sep 2026). Yet IMD's district figures show 16 districts with large excess rain, 90 with excess and 312 normal. That is 418 districts with normal or more rain (our calculation), against 282 deficient and 34 large deficient. 7 had no data.

Of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 had normal rain (53% of the area), 17 were deficient and Odisha had excess.

Past El Niños. IMD's El Niño and monsoon table shows that some El Niño years even had above-normal rain for India as a whole: 1953 (+10.7%), 1963 (+4.4%) and 1994 (+13.9%). The strong El Niño of 1997 brought a normal monsoon (+0.2%).

What's next (forecast). IMD's outlook for October to December says rain over south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala is likely normal to above normal, while most other areas are likely below normal (IMD, 1 Oct 2026).

So check your own district's figures and IMD's local forecasts, not just the national headline.

Join the El Niño help room on soshyal.com to ask questions and share what you see in your area.