1997: the strong El Niño that India escaped, and why

1997 brought one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Yet India's June–September monsoon ended at +0.2% of normal, according to IMD's table of El Niño years.

Compare other El Niño years (IMD): 1972 −22.3%, 1982 −11.4%, 1987 −14.3%, 2002 −20.9%, 2015 −12.7% and 2023 −5.3%. Only 1997 stayed normal, and it was the only one IMD rates as strong.

The commonly cited reason. In 1997 the Indian Ocean had its strongest positive dipole (IOD) of the 20th century: warmer than usual in the west and cooler in the east (Hindustan Times, citing a 1999 Nature paper). IMD says a positive IOD can support rain over India and can partly offset El Niño's drying.

The lesson. El Niño raises the risk of drought but does not guarantee it. An ICRIER study (2014), cited by the Hindustan Times, found that about 11 of 23 El Niño years since the 1950s brought droughts in India.

What about 2026–27? Agencies differ on the IOD. IMD expects it to stay neutral, while Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and WMO expect a positive phase. That is why no one can promise a 1997-style escape this time.

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