How strong is El Niño right now? NOAA, BoM and IMD compared

Every agency agrees this El Niño is strong and still growing. Their numbers differ because they measure in slightly different ways.

NOAA (USA) reported a September 2026 average of +2.1°C in the Niño-3.4 region of the Pacific, with its status at "El Niño Advisory" (8 October 2026).

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported +2.81°C for the week to 11 October, the highest in its weekly series, which starts in 2008. Monthly values are still below long-term records.

IMD (India) describes "strong El Niño conditions", with about +2.08°C in August.

WMO uses one baseline for all its numbers: +1.6°C in June 2026, +2.5°C in August 2026, against a previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015 to January 2016. It forecasts about +3.7°C for October–December 2026. That is a forecast, not a measurement.

Will it be a record? NOAA puts the chance of the strongest event since 1950 at 54% for September–November, 83% for October–December and 70% for November–January.

What next? WMO, BoM and IMD expect El Niño to peak around December 2026 and last into early 2027. Do not compare numbers across agencies directly: each uses its own method and baseline.

Join the El Niño help room on soshyal.com to ask questions and share what you see in your area.