Winter 2026–27: why a warmer winter is a risk, not a relief

A warmer winter might sound pleasant. For India's farms and rivers, experts say it is more of a warning sign. First, an important caveat: as of 17 October 2026, IMD has not issued its December–February outlook. What follows are expert views reported in the news, not an official forecast.

What experts expect. Hindustan Times (4 September) and the Times of India (14 October) report that experts expect winter 2026–27 to be warmer than normal during this El Niño. A Skymet vice-president called a warmer winter a "possibility". WMO's 8 October update also says above-average temperatures are likely across large areas of the world for October–December.

Why it is a risk for crops. Winter is the rabi season: wheat, mustard and chana. Experts quoted by HT and TOI point to three risks: low soil moisture after a weak monsoon, limited irrigation water, and a warm spell in February–March that cuts grain-filling in wheat.

A recent lesson. In 2022, early heat cut wheat yields, and India banned wheat exports in May 2022.

Snow and rivers. Experts also say a snow drought in the Himalaya is possible, which could mean less snowmelt for rivers next spring.

What to do. Farmers should follow their local Krishi Vigyan Kendra and IMD agromet advisories on sowing and irrigation. Everyone else can help by saving water. We will update this page as soon as IMD issues its winter outlook.

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