El Niño 2026–27 status
Where the 2026–27 El Niño stands, and why two agencies can print two different numbers. Status posts are updated in place.
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- El Niño 2026 timeline: from La Niña to neutral to El Niño
A year ago the tropical Pacific was in the opposite mood. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), La Niña, the cool phase of the cycle, ran from September 2025 to February 2026.
- How strong is El Niño right now? NOAA, BoM and IMD compared
Every agency agrees this El Niño is strong and still growing. Their numbers differ because they measure in slightly different ways.
- Will 2026–27 become the strongest El Niño on record? What the probabilities say
Headlines are already calling this a possible record El Niño. Here is what the agencies actually say, as of mid-October 2026.
- When will El Niño peak and end? Month-by-month odds to mid-2027
El Niño is not a single storm; it is a pattern that lasts months. So when does this one peak, and when will it fade?
- Why El Niño numbers differ between agencies: baselines explained simply
You may see El Niño described as +2. 1°C in one report, +2.
- The IOD question: is the Indian Ocean neutral or positive, and why agencies disagree
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the Indian Ocean's own see-saw: the difference in sea temperature between a western box off Africa and an eastern box off Indonesia.
- El Niño and India: what we know and what we don't (October 2026)
There is a lot of noise about El Niño. Here is an honest sorting of what is established and what is still open, as of 17 October 2026.
- How to read an IMD seasonal outlook map: terciles in plain words
IMD's seasonal outlook maps look like a patchwork of colours. Here is how to read one in under a minute.